For about 10 days, it has been relatively peaceful with no sign of the frenetic night-time rock fights.  I have’nt heard anybody mention it much in that time.  And I certainly have not heard anything to keep me awake at nights.  I believe the OZ travel warnings have not been downgraded during this time.

Apart from the weekend air traffic which FOS over at XananaRepublic can describe better than me and some sort of ground operation on Sunday in the area behind the Backpackers (in parts, known as Farol, Palo Paso and Mandarin), I have heard nothing until yesterday.  Again, FOS got an early inkling of things changing again with SMS warnings for the Bairo Pite, Banana Road and Comorro bridge areas.  And if the UN have upped their staff security warnings, then I will take it that things are warming up again.

The published UN security reports talk of an incident on Monday night where 6 houses were torched in the Kuluhun Atas area.  (I think this is just north of Taibesse.)  Although it does not say, other information suggests there was shooting involved in that incident.   And I heard yesterday of a shooting incident at the National Hospital IDP camp.  The shots were not fired by international security forces.

With an armed F-FDTL (army) now operating in a static capacity at government buildings, its hard to know if they or the PNTL (police) were involved in the firing of guns.  I have heard that F-FDTL do adopt a more flexible attitude to static security than UNPol prefer to be the case.  (Note that F-FDTL operate independently from international forces while PNTL work with UNPol officers.)

So I guess the usual night-time warnings should still be heeded in the Bairo Pite, Banana Road and Comorro River bridge areas and we will see how all this develops over the next few days.

Meanwhile, have a look at the pictures over at XananaRepublic where FOS clearly would prefer a return to “beer and skittles”.

Before de-stressing in the time honoured Friday evening fashion, another day seems to have (almost) passed without incident (of note).

If I had been compulsorily evacuated to Darwin, I would be wondering what gives.

Firstly, the heightening of security concerns was driven by :

• weeks of daily rock throwing, broken glass and lots of sleeplessness

• threats against Australian citizens

• fear of a backlash after the failure to capture Major Alfredo

• fear of a backlash after the Rogerio Lobato verdict

• fear that the return of armed F-FDTL to the streets would lead to trouble (kiddies, I am going to add a glossary to the blog soon to explain why the first F does not mean procreate)

• fear that things would get worse in the run-up to the election

So you shuffle off to Darwin with your 10kgs and wait … nothing.  So I go running this morning … nothing.  So I go cycling this afternoon … nothing.  The tension on people’s faces … gone.  What gives ?

Someone said one of today’s papers said whoever has been paying the gangs has run out of money.  Could be.

Maybe the Rogerio Lobato verdict did hit the sweet spot and convince people that the justice system actually does work in the end.  Although Lobato’s lawyer says the sentence is unfair (too long), another politician said it was also unfair (too short).

Maybe the return of armed F-FDTL to the streets has put the fear of god into people, because in the crunch, people believe they have weapons and will use them.  I also noted armed UIR (PNTL rapid reaction force police) on the streets today.  Keep all digits in rest position he tells himself … you are not at home.

Maybe the threat of a state of emergency and some interesting adjustments to police powers, threats of curfews and restrictions on civil liberties have done it.

Some think it is the calm before the storm.  Time to de-stress.  Tomorrow is a another day.

A note to the Darwin refugees – again !

I woke to a beautiful day in paradise. Quiet, peaceful, the last 48 hours the quietest this year. Went for a run this morning !! Yes, you heard right – me … run … morning. My body has been trained to operate at the cutting edge of relaxation in the mornings, building to a crescendo in the afternoon. The flab was getting to me and morning feels safer than evening.

No stonings over the last couple of days except for ruffians doing it on their day off. I guess the gangs must be “workshopping” at the moment.

No queue in the bank yesterday. Supermarkets well stocked, rice available ($5-70 per 5kg at Landmark last week). Restaurants taking a hit again.

Just enjoy the saltimbocca, a good movie and a few jars of Guinness while you have the opportunity. Melbourne Bitter and Worcestershire sauce is not quite the real thing.

I was pondering the 7.5 years sentence for Rogerio Lobato and wondered a few things.  I wondered if it would be reduced on appeal – I guessed yes.  I wondered if he would ever spend a day in Becora prison – I guessed no, home detention more likely.  I wondered if an amnesty might be on the cards after the elections are done and dusted.  I wondered if the poor health card would be played.

Does it mean he keeps his government provided house and all the trimmings ?  What about his parliamentary salary ?  Is he still a member of parliament ?  Seven years in a government minister’s house on home detention would be like paradise for more than 90% of the population.

And if he goes, what about all the others that are probably implicated by the guilty verdict ?

Did everything go really quiet because of the verdict ?  Has it hit the sweet spot that keeps all sides happy ?

I’m just asking the questions.

I have put on a few pounds over the last 2 weeks due to not enough moving about.  I think I need more adrenalin, which I may have found if I had gone to Same with Fat Old Sod.

Not sure if this is hot off the press or not but I think ex-Minister for the Interior (ie amongst other things, in charge of the police) Rogerio Lobato was sentenced to 7 years this afternoon.  One media report had said the maximum possible penalty for all charges was 35 years.

I think many people have been waiting for this announcement and it has been very quiet.  When this sort of event occurs here, it can take a day or two for any backlash to become evident.  So even if it is quiet again tonight, it could be Monday before one knows the true reaction from any unruly groups.

It has been raining most of the afternoon and the temperature is as cool as it gets here.  Who knows if this will affect any immediate responses.  Maybe by lunchtime tomorow, there will be a general feel amongst the majority.

The events of the last couple of days have culminated in the scheduled departure of a significant segment of the expat community.  It is not only non-essential OZ embassy staff and families of staff members, but all OZ volunteers (AVI) and large groups working on AusAid projects.  Most departures are elective with only some of them compulsory.  UK and NZ have followed suit.  The UN and UN volunteers have made no move as yet.

Many government departments are not really operating well as local staff are not showing up for work and a number of expats are choosing to leave.  The Ministry of Education is a bit of a mess and suffering from looting, trashing and a bit of burning.  An education ministry warehouse next to the main offices is a smouldering wreck with all contents burnt and the roof caved in.  The F-FDTL are now guarding what remains of that warehouse and hopefully preventing further damage, which seems to have been limited to the bottom floor of the office complex.

I believe the Ministry of Agriculture has been disfunctional for some time (due to regular stoning of the building) and with the departure of many other expat capacity building staff, an awful lot of things may well go on hold for some time.

I think the last 2 nights were actually pretty quiet but car tyre burning and road barricading is still a feature and clearly evident in the morning.  Of course, residents of Bairo Pite and Delta may disagree – I don’t know.

Movement seems fine during the morning period, but the expectation of trouble after dark seems to be visible from lunchtime on.  Thats the feel anyway.

By next week, the expat scene may well be a shadow of its former self, although I admit I know nothing about what the Portuguese community is doing regarding leaving.  It all really depends on whether the threats of violence actually take the next step.  And it is the threats that are driving a lot of this situation.

I do feel sorry for some of those compelled to leave as it involves packing a bag of no more than 10kgs.  Just think – laptop, backup drive, music player, personal papers, 2 pairs of underwear and only one sock.  So you leave all of your other stuff and wonder just how long before you get back.

Note : I had trouble posting this yesterday when I fisrt wrote it.

I will try to be as un-dramatic as possible.

Well I did wake up this morning and everything seemed fine.  I drove down Comorro Road and could see the tell-tale signs of a number of burnt tyres, from the Tiger fuel corner to the OZ embassy.  I am told that last night’s events were pretty uncontrolled in this section of road and while I heard shots between 6:30pm and 7:30pm, the gangs had this section of road barricaded until 1am.  All the shots were from the foreign security forces – mostly GNR with warning shots, rubber bullets, tear gas etc.

I dropped into Hotel Timor to have a chat with a friend and found a number of people I knew who related experiences from early today.  One had come from the ransacked Ministry of Education offices which had been trashed and looted overnight.  The GNR had advised them to abandon the building before there was more trouble.  Someone else had received similar advice with respect to their workplace in Taibesse.  In other words, a lot of expats are probably having trouble achieving anything in their workplace.

But things seemed to deteriorate by late afternoon and the street barricades were going up in a number of places around town.  I am not sure of the exact purpose of these, whether it is to slow down the UN police, prevent people from going into trouble areas or for ambush purposes to extort money.

So far the night is much quieter than last night, but the boys are well equipped to run amok into the early hours.  One normally expects trouble in Bairo Pite and the Delta area.  An SMS warning listed a number of areas in town as being no-go zones from late afternoon.  Only the extremely brave or extremely hungry will be venturing out tonight.

At around 5pm, the OZ travel warning recommended that all Australians leave but an hour later modified this to “consider leaving”.  I believe the OZ volunteers (AVI) will be leaving over the next few days.