The “Report of the United Nations Special Commission of Inquiry for Timor-Leste” was released on 17 October. I note it is dated 2 October and I think it was initially expected about 8 October but I believe the UN wanted to be prepared for any security backlash.

Although the actual release date always seemed to be a rumour to me, most of the locals seemed to be prepared for it as of Sunday. Shops started closing on Sunday and Monday was very quiet. It seems not much happened and things have almost returned to “normal” (relative to recent times).

I have yet to read the 79 page report which can be downloaded in PDF format (440 kbytes) from the the UN web site at http://www.ohchr.org/english/docs/ColReport-English.pdf and leave it up to the reader to come to a conclusion.

I still expect a bit of discomfort over the coming weeks, not just for the people who have been named (and their supporters) but also for those disappointed that that some other names did not appear in the report.

And no, there is no suggestion of a foreign-initiated coup, something I have never heard seriously mentioned here. On 16 June, I mentioned some of the possibilities doing the rounds (http://wombathole.com/dili-gence/?p=115) and maybe I will have to mark the report card on who came closest to getting it right.

Today, the International Crisis Group (whatever that is) released a report called “Resolving East Timor’s Crisis”. I will get around to reading it a bit more carefully soon but basically it seems to cover a lot of the issues related to the current problems.

The report (36 page PDF document and 860kb in size) is available here at crisisgroup.org

I am not sure where it fits into the big picture as the UN report on the recent troubles is due before the end of October. This is often talked about around town as it is supposed to name names and provide a starting point for prosecution of people who have done the wrong thing (whatever that is).

Some information on this special commission of inquiry is available at reliefweb

There has been a lot of conjecture about town whether the details of the UN report will cause trouble. At the very least, there will be a lot of squirming but I would assume that all the potentially guilty parties already have a good idea of what to expect. At the same time, I am fairly certain the foreign military and police forces already know the names of those who will be named. So I think there may be a lid on any really bad stuff but one would have to expect some issues coming out of left field somewhere.

I know the day the report is released will be a good day to plan for a nice meal at home and some stiff gin and tonics just to be on the safe side.

Well, the theory goes that a break away recharges batteries and provides renewed enthusiasm.  Then I try to rationalise my emails (by modem) after the break.  Apparently my biggest friend I have in the world is called “Junk” and to top off my 97% of all emails from “Junk”, the spam farms have successfully found dili-gence.  (I curse the “real money up-front” ISP who “claims” to have spam filters on my incoming mail.)
I may be forced to insist on registration for those keen enough to want to post to dili-gence.  I may even have to study up on how to reduce spam on blog sites.  Maybe I’ll get over it.
Some mates have already told me that everything has pretty much been business as usual – the odd fire, the odd rock fight, the odd canister of tear gas.  It seems I didn’t miss a thing.

Personal Security

Over the last couple of weeks, there have been instances of expats being targets for projectiles. I think in most cases, the projectile throwers would not have even known the nationality of the target in the dark and behind motorcycle helmets or in 4WDs.

However, the frequency of these events is rising. Perhaps the most disturbing event was a female expat who collected a “rama ambon” smashing through the driver’s window and into the dashboard. “rama ambons” are steel darts fired from a slingshot which are barbed, feathered and silent. One of these can pierce a skull. It appeared to be a random event and disturbingly in an area not seen as being one of the known troublespots.

I have been saying for some time that it is only a matter of time before an expat is seriously injured. I guess it is more likely it will be a foreign policeman. And when it happens, it will be front page news somewhere. Yet Timorese have been going through the local medical facilities with machete slashes and the like for ages.

It has also become clear that both organisations and individuals are taking security more seriously. It appears quite a number of foreign organisations have some form of security advisor who keeps tabs on the situation. Reading the foreign press is very misleading at the moment as the daily rock throwing and house burning is not really reported anymore.

Being a relatively small expat community, the information provided to staff tends to spread around. Eventually, any localised events are made known. For instance, a friend told me recently that during “Quiz Night” at the Dili Club, a number of people received either text messages or phone calls warning of trouble. This sort of more formal sharing of security information is new (to me anyway).

One of the general bits of advice is “avoid going out between 6:00pm and 8:30pm” as this period is the most dangerous period. There is no doubt there is talk of this stuff being organised to the point of being timetabled.

According to a local restaurant owner, business fell after the prison escape of Major Alfredo and plummeted after the shootings 2 Fridays ago. The Fatuhada/Comorro area remains a bad area but there has been a shift in emphasis to the IDP camp located in the park across from Hotel Timor and right outside the front gates of the port facility (ie the OZ defence force base).

The boys move north from the Colmera shopping area and commence their rock fights across the main thoroughfare. The road is often closed once this starts and when combined with the one-way road system, makes going places a bit difficult (particularly from west to east).

Just as I have fear that an expat will be seriously injured soon, it may only be a matter of time before the rock throwing includes some little extras like “rama ambons” which ought to scare anyone. Even bow and arrow would lift the tempo of these little outbreaks.

Postscript : Since I first started writing this, I think the foreign troops have done a little push in the Hotel Timor area and it has been quieter.

Major Alfredo Reinado

As for Major Alfredo Reinado, my understanding is that Becora prison does not operate like a typical western prison. I believe inmates “were” allowed to wander outside freely during the day and were pretty free to do what they liked inside. So the prison “breakout” was probably not as dramatic as reports would make out. More like storming out in a huff from a day care centre.

I would be surprised if the OZ military do not know exactly where the Major is right now, but may be perfectly happy to simply monitor the Major’s movements. I can see no sign right now that the Major intends to do anything dramatic but who knows the extent of his powers of patience.

I would be amazed if the Major was in any position to do anything to cause a security issue.

Postscript 11 Sept.

– What I meant was I didn’t think the Major could personally be involved in any major conflict. Recent reports suggest he will still cause a fair bit of trouble on the general stability side with calls to unseat the current government.

I have to admit I have been out of the loop for nearly a week. I copped a bad prawn or something late last week which dropped me for a couple of days. I thought I was coming good, went out to dinner on Saturday night, but de-generated again next day.

I have given the toilet bowl and basin a good old pounding and on Thursday when it first hit, barely got away without making a public disgrace of myself.

I only started coming good again on Wednesday and went out to dinner last night. Things have changed. At 6:30pm, our car met an OZ police checkpoint and we were strongly advised to turn around and go home. When the rock rolled past the front of the car, I could see what was going on. Yet another rock fight.

We went home and our eating partner elected to come to our place. We had another crack at 8:30pm and the rock fight had vanished and the streets were totally deserted. The restaurant owner was ecstatic to see customers and he told us that business had dropped sharply after Major Alfredo’s prison escape and plummeted to almost nothing after the shootings last Friday.

There have been a couple of other signs that now lead me to conclude that the security situation is definitely a lot worse than a month ago. But why ? In the absence of any analysis from any foreign press at the moment, I will have a go in my next post.

As of last week, yet another UN gravy train is about to hit TL. The UN acronym department has come up with UNMIT this time. This replaces UNOTIL (UN Office in Timor-Leste) which replaced UNMISET (UN Mission of Support in East Timor) which replaced UNTAET (UN Transitional Administration in East Timor) which replaced Interfet (International Force East Timor) which replaced …

UNMIT means “UN Integrated Mission in Timor-Leste” or as the wags are already calling it, “unmitigated …”. There are a lot of people in town who are either directly involved or at least partially involved in the new UN operation and who have to some extent had some input into the rules of engagement. Not surprisingly, there has been a lot of politicking about some of the rules.

Now I don’t exactly know who wants what but you have all sorts of players oaring in to establish their own position. The US, OZ and Portuguese seem to be major players. For the US, the bigger the UN operation, the more it costs the US which may partly explain why Australia has offered to retain the military component for as long as possible.

I do know that the position of head of the new operation is a very sensitive issue. I won’t beat around the bush – most would score the current incumbent no more than 4 out of 10. But as I have learnt, with the UN, many positions are political and skill level and performance are secondary to that.

It is possible that I broke my “no politics” rule but it is hard not to at the moment. A common theme that is mentioned by many about key decision-making entities here is “but when are they actually going to do something” rather than generate yet another policy document or conduct yet another gabfest.

However, if the forthcoming increase in UN numbers has a positive outcome, it certainly does lead to a huge injection into the local economy. It will revive the restaurant/bar scene, fill out the hotels and other accommodation, raise prices and increase availability of take-away burgers by a factor of 10. It should provide opportunities for Timorese to find avenues to generate income. But it will also make Dili even more remote from the rest of the country.

Pardon me for being so frivolous, but yesterday’s break-out from Becora Prison was just what was required to provide the necessary twist to make a good old rollicking opera.

Major Reinado and all 56 of the lads escaped at around 2pm. No-one seems to know just how and when yet, but I am sure that at least one of the 100+ Timorese prison guards ought to know something.

The lads managed to evade the NZ military patrols in the area and as far as I know, have vanished.

I suspect it was no coincidence that yesterday was a Timorese public holiday, and that the Malaysian military contingent left yesterday as well plus the first of the NZ military withdrawals. And also in a period prior to the establishment of a bigger UN police group. And also the same day as an Australian SBS Dateline documentary on the subject of a coup.

Is this going to be a single sitting opera, as long as Wagner’s Ring or what ?