OK, I now get the drift.  Level 5 was the correct call after all.

Yep, I went out twice today to do shopping – even bought rice from Landmark.  No problems.  But a friend told me things went to crap in the Delta area late afternoon.

There was a flurry of SMS warnings, all tending towards the stay at home, doors locked variety.  That was cool – nice big comfort dinner planned (a week ago) at home anyway.

Very late afternoon, the SMS flurry heightened.  At around 7:30pm, there were many “gunshots”, some quite close and I admit to a little bit of gastric agitation.  This was followed by the tell-tale banging of metal light poles (of the lights that don’t work anyway) and a bit of “whooping it up”.  For about 1/2 an hour there, I thought things were as bad as last year in May.  But I think the reality is that the “gunshots” were all from the security forces and not from anyone that was going to cause me harm.  Anyway, this is what you tell yourself.

So you start tucking into a really nice meal, red wine and good conversation and try to ignore the gunshots.  After about an hour, all went quiet.  The streets were absolutely deserted and you could hear a pin drop.

A topic of conversation was just how was one to get an adrenalin rush back in the western world after all this is over.  I suggested finding the local “blood house” (ie extremely rough bar) and sup gin and tonics while watching the action.  Maybe returning to become a world championship wrestling fan.  And tomorrow morning, I will wake up.

PS  I think OZ volunteers are being asked to leave.  Some will be happy but an awful lot will not like it.  And no-one else outside TL quite understands this.  I think the best way I can describe it is – “home is where the slippers are”.  Mine are here – even though I can’t find a reason to actually wear them.

The raising of the OZ travel warning advisory to level 5 probably confused a lot of people.  No guns, no restrictions on movement during the day etc. etc.  It was probably based on the situation with Major Alfredo and was probably setting things up for a resolution.

At a dinner last night, a couple of calls came in to other diners suggesting that steps were underway to get Alfredo but that he had escaped.  Fifteen minutes later, one caller apologised and said it was just rumour.  I can’t believe he escaped but if the rumour spreads amongst the locals …

At about 3:45am, I woke … extremely tired … then heard the unmistakable sound of gunshots.  I heard about 5 to 10 over the next half hour, then it went quiet until the choppers fired up.

This morning, there was active trade of information by phone as a lot of expats heard gunfire and it certainly put the wind up the locals.  The phone wires were probably running hot as many expats were trying to work out what was happening.

Radio Australia report that the OZ troops did make a move last night and supposedly have taken control of Same but no other details are available.  I went to do shopping this morning and things were OK but there were more “observers” than normal – locals on watch for anything out of the ordinary.

A friend confirmed that some locals believe Reinado has escaped and is going to attack Dili.  I would think this is not possible.  But the rumour mill is running again.

The OZ media report that OZ special forces have been sent here.  “The Age” and “All Headline News” report it as 100 SAS troops in 4 planes.  I saw 2 Hercules transport planes depart on Saturday afternoon.

One acquaintance reported a lot of activity in the Bairo Pite area and I understand the gunshots I heard were rubber bullets and other stuff that the GNR (ie riot police) use.

Another friend CM reported gunfire from the Becora area and many locals yelling out “Alfredo, Alfredo” as if he was coming in right now.  There were 2 deaths yesterday morning in Becora and it is quite possible that this morning’s events were payback which required more shots from security forces.

I have heard no evidence that any of Reinado’s group or supporters were involved in the firing of any weapon in and around Dili.

A number of expats have been requested by employers to stay indoors today with doors locked.

I expect official information to be coming out soon on the Same situation.  If only because locals will be phoning friends and relatives here in Dili with a sketchy view of what is going on and potentially feeding the rumour mill.

Postscript : The above commentary is how it tends to go here.  You piece it together from radio, internet, official warning messages and information from others who are located all over town.  You compare the number of gunshots you hear etc. etc.  The you ring someone else and they are completely unaware of any problem at all.

Things have been heating up across the board.  I will list what I think is fueling the current trouble :

• the death of 2 Timorese at the airport IDP camp on Friday
• Major Alfredo’s actions at the border posts and subsequent stand-off with the ISF
• the apparent support by the local Same population for Alfredo
• media reports here that cover the entire spectrum of statistical possibilities for describing the background to an event
• the rice shortage
• the Presidential election politicking

The Australian government has raised their travel advice to LEVEL 5 which must be getting close to “please leave”.  I received a message from a mate who received a message from a work colleague suggesting a major bust-up in the Delta 4 area tonight and some more trouble in Bairo Pite.  I have heard the tell-tale sounds of choppers to the west as Delta 4 is just to the east of the Comorro River a few kms inland.

I thought I heard a gunshot earlier but I dismissed it as nothing at the time.  At night-time, there is almost no noise at all in Dili (except in a power cut) and with the roads deserted, a gunshot sound could travel a long distance.  I know the chopper sound does.

A dead give-away of trouble was the fact the day guards at the compound did not go home and are staying the night.  This has not happened in a long time.

Notes :

ISF – International Stabilisation Force (I was calling it Security not Stabilisation)
Same pronounced “sarm-ay” not “s’may” or  “saym”

I was woken by very loud chopper noise this morning (from the heliport) which seemed to go on for an hour between 5am and 6am.  I thought oh, oh … but then it was different.  It seemed quite static.  Troop movements, I thought ??

As far as I could tell, the day was relatively quiet, except for the shift in emphasis to the districts.  I guess it was only a matter of time.  I don’t know any details but I guess I will know by mid-morning tomorrow what the new deal is.

So Major Alfredo is in Same and there is some form of stalemate (or was when I last heard).  The UN has raised its security and the OZ embassy has been quite specific about Same in their advice.

As for me, I decided that it was OK to go down to Cristo Rei for exercise this evening – first time for a week.  When I left, apart from a number of GNR, I was the only white face.  On my way back, a fleet of UN Police seemed to be headed down that way, but none of the usual civilians.  Maybe I made a strategic error – but I don’t think so.  This part of town is pretty cool.  But it reflects a heightened security environment.  I cycle past an IDP camp that not one week ago, was flinging rocks at passing vehicles.  I wonder if I am getting a bit blase about it all.

The western part of town is not so good.  FatOldSod seems to have some choice neighbours.  The airport is a barrel of laughs.  The Delta area not crash hot either.

The UN election volunteers may have the more interesting lives at the moment.  I smelt rice cooking today so there must be some out there now.  The Leader ANZ ATM is down again.  Traffic lights are on but compliance is variable.  Yogurt is back.

I encourage anyone who encounters anything of note today to post a comment here.

Last Friday’s shooting at the airport carpark by the airport IDP camp seems to have sparked up the anti-foreigner feeling amongst some of the locals.  The incidence of stoning of vehicles driven by foreigners seems to have increased.  Although first assumed to be anti-UN, it seems to have morphed into anti-OZ and even anti-anyone foreign.

I know people who drive around everywhere (or so they say) who have never seen an incident but others who confront this stuff every day.  There seems to be more of it west of the heliport which is an area I try to avoid.  The OZ embassy has been a particularly bad spot for some time, so diversion around the alternative beach road has been my preference for a while.  However, last week even that route was a bit dodgy given that one of the rice warehouses is on that road.  As per last year, the closer you are to the seashore, the safer it seems.

The traffic lights have created problems by stopping vehicles which are subsequently stoned.  I think the general rule is to ignore the traffic lights now.   They should be turned off.

There is a funeral today for one (or both ?) of those who died last Friday.  The word is to practice extreme caution today as anti-OZ sentiment is expected to be high.  I have no plans to get amongst it today and I know several government ministries have pretty much closed down due to repeated rock throwing incidents aimed at their offices.  Some have moved out computer equipment to play it safe.

Lets see how the day pans out.

PS – Teresa – keep reading.

Yesterday was one of those days.  Got off to a flier when there was trouble at the airport at 8:50am and one person was shot and killed by ADF (OZ Defence Force).  The SMS waves were thick with warnings for a while and it was bunker down until a few more details emerged.  The mobile phone system was swamped and unusable for voice calls by mid-morning.

By lunchtime, the security forces claimed things were back to normal, but not before civilians had ramped up all sorts of precautionary measures.  Most expats probably get to the airport quite regularly, either coming or going, or to meet and greet, or to farewell.  It was my turn at lunchtime.  There were a couple of FPUs (formed police units which to us novices, look like riot police) in their special riot vehicles and in the background, about 40 AFP soldiers, who were called away around 1pm.  Otherwise, business as usual.

I guess a complete story will come out in due course, but in the meantime we are stuck with the official story from the ADF and the rumour mill.  The reality is that there are groups that seize on these sorts of incidents and use a bit of truth flexing to fire people up in opposition to the foreign security force presence.

Personally, I don’t believe that OZ defence forces just wade into conflict situations (like an IDP camp) and do stuff without provocation.  But nevertheless, the guy who fired off the fatal rounds is probably going to need counselling for a few weeks as he comes under the hammer.

This followed reports of F-FDTL soldiers firing weapons into the kampongs near Hotel Esplanada on the previous day.  Courtesy of that reliable source of information (the bar) I was told they responded to having their vehicle stoned.

All this comes after a bit of trouble at rice warehouses and subsequent targeting of UN vehicles, which seems to have extended to any foreigner.  A few car windscreens (ie windshields for you northerners) have copped a pounding and any foreigner without shatterproof film on their cars has probably put it on the shopping list by now.

Again courtesy of “the bar”, locals who work at the airport and tend to know a bit of what’s going on down there, have told expats that the funeral is this morning and to expect trouble after the funeral.  The UN police will know this, so things may or may not happen.

A good day to start learning macrame.

For me, the last week has been pretty confusing and all over the place, like flies at a BBQ. (How did I post an article twice – I don’t know !) Hopefully, the last of the big power problems have fizzled away. But the violence appears on the increase again. Election dates have been called and the election campaigns are starting to wind up. There are chronic rice shortages and a perplexing lack of coordinated effort to sort it out.

I received messages yesterday to avoid unnecessary travel due to trouble and the absence of diners at lunchtime at the Beach Cafe or Castaways was a sure sign. (Bicycle now tucked away at home for the time being !) I believe someone from the OZ embassy had their car stoned on arrival at the embassy yesterday. Rock fights and stoning of vehicles reported near City Cafe and One More Bar – places I happily cycled past yesterday. Troubl;e near the Bebonuk rice warehouse. The Fomento building (Ministry of Agriculture) has come under sustained rocking over the last 36 hours. (This is the building that was comprehensively trashed last year.)

I believe the UN police suggest that it is the worst they have experienced since they arrived last year. (Keep in mind they arrived a number of weeks after the military forces had subdued the more serious stuff of last year.)

Rice shortage

The rice shortage has been known about for weeks but nothing much “seems” to have happened. The shops do not have any at the moment and this is a local staple. The World Food Program (WFP) warehouses are said to have stocks but it has also been reported they have been looted. There are other reports that the looting was politically motivated and I have read assertions from both Fretilin and its opposition inferring that the other may have been behind the looting.

When out east a couple of weeks ago, it was quite noticeable that the rice paddies near Baucau were drastically short of water, with perhaps only about 5 to 10% of the paddies in operation. It seems generally accepted that the wet season is about 6 weeks late, with more regular rain only over the last week.

Commission of Truth and Friendship

The international news has tended to concentrate a lot on the Commission of Truth and Friendship at a time when ironically, security issues here have been deteriorating. It seems to have grabbed a bit more attention but I am sure the events of the last 24 hours will swing the action back here again.

Traffic lights

The traffic lights came into operation about 2 weeks ago but at first, for short periods only. I have never seen anything grossly offensive but admit to driving through a red when no traffic was around. Others have reported being overtaken at a red light and today, I was told that no-one is stopping for fear of being a target. Some have dutifully stopped and then been rocked. No, it is not the time to be sitting down and doing a photo shoot on the subject.

The Presidential election

I believe a couple of candidates have put their names forward, with the current PM Jose Ramos Horta expected to so by the end of the week. People were suggesting that the PM was angling for Fretilin backing, but it was not to be as the President of Fretilin Lu’Olu is now the Fretilin candidate.

The Parliamentary elections

The date is still unknown but the real political fight is this election. Australia’s “Age” newspaper reported that the current president Xanana Gusmao was going to be a candidate under the resurrected CNRT party. We will have to wait and see on that one.

UN Police

Well the boys are doing it tough right now. Dare I say the unsayable, but it is pretty obvious that an integrated force from over 20 countries is a bit of a shambles. Command structures and communications are said to be a bit on the disorganised side. We all know how inefficient things get, the bigger the committee.

Weekly Summary

In general, it feels like things have reverted to the way things were in May last year. Lots of ad-hoc security problems and a feeling like things may still get worse. Once the streets get too unsafe, movement of goods and services will start to suffer, fresh fruit and veg supplies may be affected and general food distribution could be a problem for everyone.

As long as the elections are on the forward planning calendar, one feels that we are in for a roller coaster of a ride. And no limes at home … again.

There are 2 election processes coming up in the next few months – Presidential and Parliamentary elections. The Presidential election has been called for 9 April – about 2 months from now. My understanding is that the Parliamentary election must be held within 80 days of the Presidential election so it must be held by 28 June.

The Fretilin party claim the Parliamentary election must be held by the end of May. I don’t know why but there may be more on this to come.

A 3 person foreign election certification team has released 3 reports on the progress of the organisation for these elections. Their most recent report #3 concluded :

On this basis, the Team finds that at present the electoral process in Timor-Leste is not proceeding satisfactorily. The findings set out at Annex 3 are of substantial significance, and relate to all but one of the main areas on which the Team has been mandated to focus. It is therefore imperative that appropriate corrective action, as recommended in this Report, be taken as a matter of the highest priority.

I downloaded the report from the UNMISET web site and rather than attempt to read it (its not exactly comfortable reading), skimmed my eyes over a number of sections that are shaded. These are the key action items.

The thing that strikes me is that with 2 months to go, the certification team’s action items include a number of recommended law changes in relation to electoral laws. I counted recommendations to repeal 3 laws and recommendations to amend 18 others.

These law changes are based on meeting benchmark (international) criteria and also to tidy up electoral laws that are in conflict with the constitution.

This will be a test. Changing 21 laws in 2 months.

A couple of days ago, UNPol (with military support) conducted an operation to seek out illegal weapons in the Ailoklaran area. Ailoklaran and Hudilaran have been areas with quite heavy gang fighting for a number of weeks. Total deaths for January were six.

The international media have pretty much ignored the daily fighting, and it was almost a surprise to see this operation get into the foreign press. Who knows how successful it will be, particularly when one of the 49 detainees is the leader of the PSHT (Setia Hati) gang.

I heard that one result of detaining these people was the burning of some of the detainees houses by the other gang (I guess).

It was obvious something special was going on with helicopters circling the area for some time. Until the operation, Dr.Dan’s Bairo Pite clinic was subjected to nightly rock assaults. This is believed to be directed at some of the patients rather than the clinic itself. Yesterday was rather quiet.

The day after the operation (I must find out the code name used), I saw a fleet of trucks (Ministry of Labour and Community Re-insertion and IOM) and UNPol vehicles heading out east. As I was returning to Dili at the time, it was easy to count them. But they were on their way somewhere east of Metinaro and the trucks contained a lot of construction steel and wood beams, presumably for housing construction. There were quite a few UNPol vehicles and maybe some IDPs (refugees). Don’t know really.

I have updated my Google Earth information to include the UN security hotspot areas as of 31 Jan 2007.  Many are the same as 3 months ago, but some of the eastern parts that were hot are no longer – in particular the Santa Ana area, Dili National Hospital and Becora.  But the Hudilaran, Ailoklaran and Bairo Pite areas have been added and are now the current hotspots.  I was a bit surprised that the Delta area, just east of the Comorro River and south of the Leader supermarket has not been included.  And if the Bairo Pite clinic is getting stoned every night, why is it not included.

For my latest Google Earth file, go here.