February could turn out to be the most interesting month for a while. The general security situation has been stable for months and your typical expat has been able to go about their normal business and security chatter has been minimal.

As it stands right now, the UN is technically finishing up on 28 February although everyone expects their mission to be extended another 12 months.

The Timorese police (PNTL) are starting to take up key policing duties again on Monday 4 February even though I have already seen them doing traffic duty during the week. It will take a bit of getting used to again as they have been out of the action since May 2006. I admit I do struggle a bit with the boys wearing dark sunglasses and being very active (and noisy) in their policing role. None of the smiling community copper stuff from these lads but we’ll see if that persona alters slightly after their quality mentoring from the UN Police.

The IDP camps remain a problem and are making a bit of a political statement by flying Fretilin flags and of late, it seems like they are getting bigger. The government has decided to reduce food hand-outs to the camps to encourage people to leave and go back home and get on with things. The government found that one of the problems was that free food tended to attract people to the camps and that 50% of food went to people who did not need it.

A Timorese I know who had her house burnt down has been renting a small room out in the community and made the comment that “here I am trying to get on with things, doing it hard and all I have to do is go and live in a camp and I will get free food – why wouldn’t I?”. Well, I wouldn’t as the camps look particularly unattractive and it has rained most days over the last week or so. But if my alternative was a leaky grass hut that floods anyway, maybe I would.

It is a difficult one. I think the reality will turn out like this : some people will suffer with the food reduction; some will elect to move on; others will take advantage of the situation to cause trouble; politicians may well be hurling excrement at each other over it; and the NGOs running the camps could be stuck in the middle again.

Meanwhile, the F-FDTL are having some sort of anniversary ceremony today and the OZ Army Band are doing a youth concert tomorrow at 5pm at the Stadium (or maybe it is in front of the Palacio). Monty Python here we come.

Addendum : Yep, I got an SMS which confirmed that the boys did the Monty Python theme.  And perhaps the OZ Army Band will be at the university gymnasium.  I once tried to play a trombone and doing it in the rain does’nt seem too flash so the gym seems a safe bet.

Within the last 24 hours, I heard 3 separate things related to doing business in TL.  Firstly, the Minister of Economy and Development mentioned an intention to drop the company tax rate from 30% to 10%.  That is but one of the costs to business that the government could stick their oar into.

Two guys from completely different companies and quite independently mentioned one of the other main impediments to business efficiency – the cost of communications.  In any dealings with overseas suppliers or customers, the associated communication costs are horrific.  I have waxed lyrical before on the cost of internet connectivity but general phone costs are high as well.

For communicating detail, the internet is probably the preferred media these days but both of these guys lamented the huge cost.  However, their main current beef is that it is currently (for them) highly unreliable.  Down for days due to line faults and dropping out every 5 minutes.  Imagine trying to collect your email at 9am and finally establishing a successful connection at noon.  And paying through the nose for the “service”.  There was a certain desperation in their voices over all this.

Another one is the extra costs associated with importing.  “Storage fees” to pay while goods wait on the docks to be cleared by customs.  “Agents fees” to expedite movement through the customs system.  Everyone knows it is a crock.

The December CPI figures have been released. They show Dili having 8.6% growth in the CPI index in 2007.

It is hard to come up with sufficient anecdotal evidence to comment on much of it but food seems to be more expensive.  I would have thought the expat housing growth rate to be much higher than 6.5%.  This is based on what I have heard recently on rent increases.  I wonder how many people have been covered by 8.6% rises in income ?

I couldn’t help but notice one single truck lapping town on Saturday. It was full of teenagers whooping it up and flying Fretilin flags. It was accompanied by a couple of cars plus a UN police vehicle escort. Back in OZ, I doubt I would be urged to vote for any party who (no matter how they did it), sent out teenagers “yee-hahing” about town.

I suspect the return of Mr. Alkatiri from holidays on the weekend may be related, plus the call today for Mr. Gusmao to resign.

Personally, I don’t know where to look – Alkatiri/Gusmao or Clinton/Obama and the gang.  You’d think at least one of them must be right.

On a lighter note, I received a Christmas present today from my sister. She doesn’t know me at all. A book called “Nosepickers of the World, Unite” which says on the cover “Let’s face it, nosepicking is a hole way of life. It unites continents and binds nations. More popular than football or even fishing, nosepicking is the sport of choice for today’s man-about-town.”

My sister’s ability to break through political conflict with a down to earth reference work like this is breathtaking.

In Dili, it seems fine to me but one should remember that stuff is still happening from time to time around the place. Take this snippet from the UN Security report for yesterday for instance :

Fighting erupted yesterday morning between two martial arts groups at
Buikaren market, Viqueque. Approximately 100 members were involved and
had used weapons consisting of machetes, knives and sling shots. One
20 year old gang member, badly injured, passed away at Viqueque’s
Hospital at approximately 14:15 hours. One suspect has been placed
under arrest.

On Monday afternoon, a 12 year old boy, was seriously injured by a
mailman wielding a machete, in Wailili – Waturou de Baixo, Baucau’s
District. The victim was admitted to Baucau Hospital and the suspect
has been arrested. The investigation into the incident is continuing.

Now if this sort of stuff happened in Hawthorn (in Melbourne) or Crows Nest (Sydney) or wherever you would like to insert*, you’d be a bit worried … no ?  These days, barely rates a mention here in Dili.  Thank god Dili has no mailmen !!

* Glenelg in Adelaide (New Year’s Eve excluded) or anywhere on “schoolies week”.

Although this sort of thing has really been going on for quite some time but at a lower level, over the last week or so, the area between the airport roundabout and the Timor Lodge Hotel has come under repeated and increased rock fighting activity and worse (ie bow and arrow, slingshot and rama ambon).

At mid-afternoon today, it didn’t look too good in the distance down the road so I guess it was on again.  I saw 2 ambulances with sirens blaring heading from that general direction towards the centre of town (perhaps the hospital).

Someone told me it is a bit of gang warfare related to paying back for the death of someone in an earlier conflict.  So I guess it may continue for some time if it is going to be a tit-for-tat exchange of rough stuff.  One thing the crisis of last year did was upset some of the balance between rival groups/gangs who have existed long before last year’s problems.

The first of the Christmas nativity scenes are commencing construction but I suspect there will be none to be seen down near the roundabout this year.