Election Tomorrow

Yesterday was another quiet one – just as you would expect from an Easter weekend. Not that I looked, but I don’t even recall seeing Easter eggs in shops. This is a good thing.

I am not expecting any trouble until tomorrow – election day. There still may be none but somehow once the results start rolling in, I think that will lift tensions, particularly if there are some surprise results.

Voting starts at 7am and goes until 4pm. Voters select one candidate only. Voters can vote at any polling place in the country provided they have their voter registration card or passport. A finger is dipped in indelible ink to record that a voter has done the job and to prevent the “vote early, vote often” syndrome.

There has been a high level of party politics associated with this election, which at the end of the day, is for a president who actually wields very little power. I think it was a major frustration for Xanana Gusmao to find people queueing up to see him with problems and being unable to do anything about it. The presidential role here seems more analogous to “governor-general” in the Commonwealth system but the term “president” here carries a weight far less than say a US president in power terms.

I can recall the issue of a popular vote for Australia’s GG (governor-general). Given the role has no real power over political outcomes (except under exceptional circumstances), I shuddered at the thought of the major parties putting forward candidates for another political stoush. I sort of prefer it that the GG is appointed and just disappears into the background, spending life shaking hands and having lots of cups of tea … and occasionally gets drunk at the races.

Good Friday – 3 days to go

In the interests of continuity, I will try to be good and post daily until the election results are out at the end of next week.

I don’t need to do much as there are international press crawling all over the place looking for a story. The hotels are full and its not because of the holiday weekend.

Yesterday was completely uneventful for me and I have to resort to UN security reports to tell me if anything happened. No-one talked about anything out of the ordinary so I assumed nothing more than the usual occasional rock and abuse. Most of the longer-term expat residents don’t tend to talk much about the small incidents.

By the look of the candidate supporters, there would appear to be a certain proportion of hangers-on looking for a good time. Many looked curiously similar to the same hangers-on around some of the gang fights. For this reason, I am not going to be surprised to hear of the occasional altercation when rival supporters cross paths. This stuff may well be outside the candidate’s control.

Officially, the campaigning is over. I am told that Fretilin supporters are camping out down at Tasi Tolu which is about 8kms west of the centre of town. (I will guess and say in the racecourse area.) I assume other candidate’s supporters are doing the same at various points around the place. One of these groups will end up having a big party next week. Who knows if these groups will stick together right through until next Friday when a final result is expected.

As for me today, a bit of body maintenance may be required and without the peak minute traffic, a bit of sucking in the silence.

Renewed violence – the bloggers view

I was listening to Radio Australia this morning and I heard about the renewed violence in Dili. I suppose the interested listener sitting in OZ is hearing this and thinking things have tipped over again. Not yet.

I moved about yesterday quite freely in central Dili (traffic problems aside) and felt no anxiety re. the security situation. I moved about amongst candidate supporters, as did a number of other expats. Yes, there are a number of extra international media people floating around and they were clearly mixing it with the supporters as well.

I left the scene of the tear gas incident about 1 minute before it occurred and was about a block away when it happened. Even if my timing had been different, I doubt if I would have found myself in trouble as I have no intention of doing more than moving about on the fringes of these big groups.

Of course, if I had seen a confrontation (ie crossing paths) between 2 different groups on the cards, my 6th sense would get me away from the potential conflict point quick smart.

Its all relative. I was much more concerned in January/February and I saw yesterday’s incidents as isolated one-offs. And nowhere near the situation of May last year. However, no doubt there will be more over the next few days.

I think the serious aggro was near the OZ Embassy, which is on the main road (Comorro Road) heading west. This is about 4kms west of the centre of town and this area has been hot for a long time. It would be wrong to infer that the trouble is attracted to the OZ Embassy – it is more that the Embassy is not exactly located in the safest spot in town. So when I talk about central Dili, I mean east of the heliport which is around 2kms west of the centre of town.

Many of the candidate supporters are young teenage males and they treat the whole campaigning process as the biggest party they have seen all year. Think Manchester United winning the European Cup and you are closer to the feel of the campaign rallies, except alcohol does not play a big part in it here. It makes it really hard to come to any conclusions about the electoral intentions of the more silent majority.

I know there was a mobile phone poll but I pretty much discount that for its non-representativeness. So it makes it difficult when there are no reliable pre-election polls and where many people do not want to show their hand until election day in the ballot box. So I have no idea of the result.

One should never forget that no matter what the feel one gets in Dili about candidate’s progress, that many of the candidates do not have the party infrastructure to conduct substantial rallies all around the country. Fretilin have a long established party infrastructure which puts them at an enormous advantage. And according to published electoral figures, Dili has only 19% of all registered voters which is about twice the figure of the next biggest of the 13 voting districts.

Campaigning in Dili

Nothing like a big presidential campaign to unclog writer’s block. The candidates were all back in town today. The Fretilin rally was at 10am at the raceway in Comorro, the Lasama rally at Democracy field at 2pm and the Horta rally at the Stadium at 2pm. (I understand the Lucia Lobato rally was yesterday.)

There was also a large crowd milling about in front of the World Bank outside Xavier do Amaral’s house (which is next-door to the WB building). All this added up to a bit of traffic carnage today. Getting around by car was a general pain in the neck, with roads blocked to cater for the associated fleets of supporters moving about in convoy.

I ended up traveling down streets I never usually use to try to get about. It provided further evidence that there really are very few campaign posters on display IN Dili. Last weekend, I went for a Sunday drive to Liquica and beyond. It was quite noticeable that houses in the countryside often had candidate posters on front doors, walls and gates. No-one seems to want to show their hand here in Dili. Better to shut up than to give someone an excuse to abuse you over your voting preference.

In the Liquica/Maubara area, the general feel was that Ramos Horta had the most posters followed by Lucia Lobato.

You couldn’t help but notice the racket from the rallies at Democracy field and the stadium. I stuck my nose into both, and despite the frenzied atmosphere at times, I felt fine. There were quite a few “international press” at the rallies, particularly at the stadium. President Xanana Gusmao and his family attended the Ramos Horta rally which was dominated by CNRT flags but there appeared to be Partido Millenium Democratico and Fretilin Mudanca supporters (or just tshirt wearers).

It was a bit of a battle getting home as Fretilin supporters were moving about town all afternoon in convoy. Based on the age cross-section of those in the Fretilin convoy, the age distribution was definitely skewed towards the male 15 to 25 years old bracket. Both the Lasama and Ramos Horta rallies seemed to have a much broader age distribution.

I am told there were a few rock fights during the day and altercations between Fretilin and other supporters including the use of tear gas, but although I heard sounds indicating trouble at a distance, I saw nothing.

8 days to the vote

For once, Dili is not dominating the entire attention of everything here in TL. Election campaigning commenced in earnest on 23 March, with presidential candidates moving about the countryside, and according to campaign schedules, appears to indicate a return to Dili on about 4 April, presumably for a major campaign here.

News reports show that the usual political bagging of opponents occurs here like everywhere else. There are a few claims of breaking election rules and the odd bit of roughing up of opponent’s supporters. But for the moment, this seems to be happening on the countryside campaign trail.

In most respects, Dili is very quiet. The Fatuhada area appears to be the only area where there have been regular security incidents of late. Perhaps the introduction of a permanent police station in Bairo Pite has helped keep Bairo Pite quieter. There seems to be nothing to suggest that one should be particularly concerned about moving about in general.

Campaign supporters are seen at off intervals moving about Dili on open-topped trucks, waving a few flags and doing the odd bit of chanting. It just looks like this is just a bit of a reminder to keep things going until the candidates return to Dili in a few days time.

I have seen Fretilin and Lu’Olu posters in a few places but for the moment, that’s all I have seen and some of these have already been partially removed. Based on the streets, you would hardly know an election is a week away.

According to the campaign schedules, the candidates ought to be back here on Wednesday, giving 4 days of campaigning here.

Electioneering

I’ve done fish and apart from the weather, I guess there is no getting away from the fact that there is a presidential election campaign underway. Now before your brain immediately starts comparing it to a US-style presidential election, remember that the president here appears to have very little real power and is more ceremonial than anything else. I am not sure the people here have really fully come to terms with the power differences of the roles of president, prime minister and parliament.

As to who would make the best Timorese president and the impact that party affiliation has on the operations of the position, I don’t know. I am no student of politics and most of the time, shake my head in amazement (and often disgust) at the antics of politicians – the double speak, the evasion of hard questions, the bagging of opponents and the cliched nature of election campaigns. The sudden urge to kiss babies one month before an election campaign …well mothers, better wash them afterwards.

Keep in mind that my observations are from an English speaking visitor’s perspective and I am not part of the target audience for any electioneering so I don’t expect to know much at all about what is happening behind the scenes and at street level.

Compared to OZ elections (for example), there appear to be similarities and there are certainly differences. Basically, apart from the Fretilin party, there appears to be nowhere near the same level of campaign funding (as you should expect here). We are still 11 days out and I have only seen minimal street advertising and no handing out of campaign literature. All I can say is I have read about campaign rallies but not seen one myself yet. There has been the odd scuffle at these rallies.

I have seen one of the common campaigning methods used here and that is the convoy of trucks with chanting supporters flying flags. I have seen this before with supporters of Rogerio Lobato when he went on trial in the courts, on peace rallies and just before Fretilin held their internal leadership vote last year. It should be noted that (based on my guess) these truck convoys contain 98+% males and in the age group 15 to 25 – not exactly fully representative of the voting population. Yesterday’s convoy that I saw, seemed to be only 3 trucks (with UNPol escort) with supporters chanting “Lu’Olo” (ie the Fretilin presidential candidate).

One of the local newspapers ran a mobile phone text message poll recently. Initially, the Fretilin candidate was well down in the results but after a couple of days, there was a big surge in the Fretilin numbers. Again, in this country, a mobile phone poll is probably not going to be representative either.

In web space, I have really only been able to find material from the Fretilin party. Again, I wonder just how targeted this can be in this country – for Dili residents only and only a small proportion at that. There is no doubt that Fretilin have the resources which the other parties do not seem to have.

I am expecting things to wind up over the next week and hopefully, I will have something more useful to say. I have been told that it is probably not a good idea to go to a campaign rally but I wonder if curiosity will get the better of me. I like to watch.

Note : It took me a week to write this. Drafted it once, threw it away, did it again, computer crashed, lost it. Its actually quite different from the first go. Depends on which side of bed you get out of.

Buying fish

I admit that I have been very gutless when it comes to purchasing fish. Ages ago, a Timorese gave me instruction on the fish inspection and purchase process.

Always in the morning as the fish sit out in 30+ degrees heat all day. Check the eye colour and the colour of the gills. I forgot the details and have never been brave enough to purchase myself. Any thoughts of me becoming a doctor went out the window based on my dislike of the fish gutting and filleting process. Yet I like eating fish but don’t like getting really crook like I did early last year.

The result is I buy all meat and fish frozen from one of the supermarkets. (I don’t like butchering an oxe either !)

Maybe I have been asleep for a while, but I noticed the fish vendors near the Lita supermarket are now using ice. These guys have only been selling from here for a month or so (or 3) and join the fruit and veg merchants who finally returned here after a long break courtesy of the events of last year.

Maybe it is time to reconsider fresh fish purchasing. A lot of the time, the fish are quite small (about 150mm in length) and probably not what most expats look for. Fresh squid hanging from a tree is not exactly the greatest look either. But if the boys provide a good selection (say 200 to 400mm length), put it on ice and offer a gutting service, I’m in.

Minor hotel/restaurant changes

The Bangkok Thai down at Metiaut (on the way to Christo Rei) now has an Indian menu.  I haven’t tried it yet.

The new hotel next to City Cafe has now put up its sign.  It is called the “Discovery Inn”.  I may stick my nose in soon, as accommodation around town is said to be tight, courtesy of many UN Police nabbing anything with a bed in it.

Now that the wet season is bringing rain down more regularly, Cafe Brasil has (a couple of weeks ago) retired the outdoor gazebo in the front.

Aaron has retired from the kitchen at Castaways, leaving Simon pretty stretched these days.

Heads up : should you come ? Yes/No

I will try to give a bit of current background to anyone thinking of coming or returning at the moment. This is targeted at returnees who may have left with a 10kg travel bag and left a household here. Also to short-term workers and anyone who really wants to visit as a tourist.

Most countries with a significant presence here have had government travel warnings advising against coming here and recommending that non-essential residents consider leaving. These have been in place at their current level for about 2 weeks now and remain in place. The major effect these advisories have is on travel insurance for private travellers and employer-based insurance for employees. The insurance companies do not want to carry the risk which is based almost entirely on these government travel warnings.

Up until a couple of weeks ago, there were good reasons for travel warnings but for about 10 or 12 days, there have been no security incidents of note affecting the expat community. The wide ranging rock fighting and general danger seemed to evaporate. However, the numbers in the IDP camps have increased. (There has been the odd localised incident in the Taibesse, Bairo Pite and Delta areas but nothing like the previous weeks.)

If you ask a few questions, you will find that the current warning state is based on recent history and threats which are assumed to be related to the forthcoming elections. So I can’t see the warnings lifted before the presidential elections scheduled for 9 April at the earliest.

Yet, right now, the streets seem as safe as they have ever been in the last 10 months. I dusted off the bicycle last week and felt perfectly fine. At night, the streets remain fairly deserted although it is debatable whether this is much different to “normal” anyway. The numbers in the bars and restaurants are down but not woefully low. A survey of home delivered pizza volumes would probably be a better indicator of expat activity.

The rice shortage situation is not over and living next to a rice warehouse is a highly undesirable activity. Chez Squatter has acquired a sack of rice at US$1-20 per kg which should last the rest of the year. Nevertheless, supplies to IDP camps are still limited.

Returnees would find it all quite OK but I think the main problem with first-time arrivals is that you just don’t know where to go or where not to go and when to do it. And knowing people who can tell you when something is “going down” is also important.

Despite all this, some people who left a week or so ago are returning, but not the international volunteer community for the moment.

On Friday, the presidential candidates all signed a declaration to play the election campaign fairly and to accept the results when they are known. Major Alfredo has gone quiet so maybe he has been closed down in the hills and is not in a position to get his mobile phone batteries re-charged.

Shopping supplies are fine. Coral reef snorkeling down the coast to the east was fine. I have heard rumours of a couple of expat businesses considering “pulling up stumps” but for the moment, it just seems a bit of a waiting game.

Hope this helps.  Just don’t sue me if everything goes bad again.  All the above applied 5 minutes ago.

Note for non-cricket playing nationals : “pulling up stumps” is a term based on the act of removing (at the end of play) some of the equipment used in the game of cricket. So it effectively means closing down for a significant period.

Price check till #7

I wake every morning at 6:59am as I have done for the last 7 years, grunt an inaudible good morning to good lady on my left, pass wind on schedule, attend to bodily functions in ablutions area, spend 2.69 minutes (on average) on the conveniences, shower with wheat germ soap as is the custom, select fresh underwear and remainder of white/black/grey apparel for another day of servitude.

Arrive at work, sit in car for 4.27 minutes in order to schedule arrival at desk at culturally acceptable 8:28am. Open briefcase, remove lunch carefully wrapped in wax paper and place in desk drawer so briefcase does not smell like I am so cheap that I bring my lunch to work ….

Then because I have nothing else to do, I ponder yesterday’s supermarket receipt which falls out of my wallet (plus that never-ending lint) and decide to compare prices with typical OZ supermarket prices. So I use the website of one of OZ’s 2 major supermarket chains and do some price comparisons. Prices are shown below. (Statistical correctness suspended !)

Item OZ price in USD
Dili price in USD % increase in Dili
Kellogs 850g Sultana Bran 5.87 9.45 61%
Pauls 1l Trim milk 1.36 1.50 11%
Pauls 250g Thickened Cream 0.91 0.85 -7%
JustJuice 1l Pineapple juice 1.42 1.60 13%
Berri 2l Tomato juice 2.17 3.75 73%
Homebrand 500g spaghetti 0.51 1.40 172%
RyVita crispbread 1.84 2.30 25%
Mainland 250g Vintage cheese 3.35 4.95 48%
Heinz 420g baked beans (NZ) 1.22 1.00 -18%
       
tomatos (per kg) 2.34 1.30 -44%
eggplant (per kg) 2.34 0.50 -79%

The results support my feeling that breakfast cereal is priced fairly ferociously (large volume, light weight ?). Milk is not bad (its all long-life except on the odd occasion). Juice variable. Spaghetti pretty ferocious. Cheese ferocious.

I admit I didn’t have a current OZ price for tomatos or eggplant but used AUD3 just for fun. So fruit and veg is a big winner here. Cereal and cheese losers.

The clear and obvious conclusion is that I should convert to a diet of baked beans and cream. Lots of wind and artery hardening.

Have you ever had one of those mornings when you wake up feeling like a chartered accountant ? And then I woke up …

Tomorrow … Bond … James Bond.