And the winner is …

What do I want ? Politicians to conduct themselves in an a fair, honest and decent manner.

When do I want it ? At least once before I point the toes would be nice – anywhere.

The lofty ideals of an election to enable people to express themselves to express their views – well, it seems to be slipping into the mire.

Kate over at East Timor Journal has done an excellent job of describing the detail. She has been here a while and can see her way through some of the fog. She was/is an election observer who have access to polling places and to information a little more remote to those who are not observers.

What I saw of the voting was consistent with early praise made by some of the election observers. However, I was curious as to why statements of success were being made a long time before the completion of the entire voting and counting process. It implanted success thoughts a long time before everything was finished.

To be honest, I had thought that during the vote itself, there would be incidents of intimidation but I am still unaware of any reports of this occurring. Dili was crawling with observers (includes international, national and party affiliated) and it would have been near impossible to rig anything during the vote itself. I presume that the more remote areas may not have had the same level of scrutiny as was the case in Dili.

One thing I have noted based on a few conversations was that while voting may have finished at 4pm, counting of papers went on until middle or late evening but some observers had gone before that count was complete and very few stuck around for the final paperwork, sealing of ballot boxes and transporting back to district capitals. It is still true that a number of expats are still under night-time travel restrictions and it is in this sort of environment that international observers find themselves in.

Who knows where it goes from here.

Timor time and numerical analness

Every man and his dog was expecting the provisional final election result tonight – less a few disputes, ballot boxes from remote locations etc. But no, it didn’t seem to happen. I put it down to “Timor Time”.

In “Timor Time”, 10am usually means 10:15am or even 10:30am or perhaps tomorrow. After a while, you don’t let it worry you. You run with it.

So it was probably a slow news day for the highly paid international correspondent hoping to get the money shot of the candidate claiming victory, the exclusive interview with the victor etc. etc. blah blah. Get used to it boys. FOS certainly has !!

I must admit to being unimpressed with the casualness of the reporting of vote count numbers. Official vote numbers and numbers from observer groups (Fretilin and Comeg) all mixed in together and no-one ever seems to state the RELEASE TIME of the figures and WHO released them.

Early in my work career, I worked for a guy (lets call him Don as his name was Donald) who beat me around the head and shoulders for not specifying units of measurement, sources of information and dates of release of information. I never regarded his behaviour as anal, but it has imparted an over-exuberant retentive streak on my approach to numbers and their use to prove whatever point it is one is trying to make.

In a nutshell, at the moment, I haven’t a clue which number means what, where they came from and who provided it. So wine tonight, results tomorrow.

Postscript : It rained most of today and I had an appointment this afternoon with a Timorese guy at 2pm. I was a little late (which I usually never am) but I did’nt let it worry me, assuming that 5 or 10 minutes late would be no problem whatsoever. The main task was to collect something and I would have liked to thank Jaquelino. I arrived at 2:10pm, assuming “Timor Time” was in effect. Goods in a sealed plastic bag left on desk – in plastic for my benefit because it was raining. Jaquelino gone – couldn’t wait. Case proven.

No tally room drama here

I’ll bet many of the international media are hitting the turps now after a frustrating day when Fretilin appeared to have called a press conference for earlier this morning and it didn’t happen.

It also must be pretty disappointing that the tally room (which I have now been brought up to speed on) is not an all singing and all dancing one like in Canberra or Washington. News reports suggest votes are still being counted but I would think all vote counts have been done (except in those areas which suffered from a shortage of voting papers). More likely to be long waits in the aggregation process which probably requires the ballot boxes (and vote counts) to be transported to Dili. On that basis, most should be in Dili by tomorrow and a pretty close approximation to the final outcome should be available by tomorrow night.

I know much of the foreign press has caught onto the Dili results which are pretty much complete. This shows Jose Ramos-Horta a clear leader and Fretilin getting a more modest tally. It could be that the Dili troubles of the last year have been translated into an anti-Fretilin vote in Dili.

But one shouldn’t get too excited because unlike my OZ birthplace, there is not a TV in every home and in fact, no functioning TV outside of the Dili area. No newspapers either, so the Dili news that does get to the more remote areas (and even LosPalos in the east) gets pretty watered down and even misunderstood. In this environment, it is pretty hard for candidates without huge party infrastructures to establish an identity with the voter. And I never saw any large scale use of election hand-outs – probably too costly for everyone.

On the other hand, it does mean that candidates from a more remote area may well completely dominate that area’s voting. I believe this is the case as I heard some of the apparently surprise results when compared to Dili voting patterns.

I am sure that tomorrow night’s vote count will give a pretty good picture of the final result.

By the way, if the only Timorese TV is in Dili and has no ads, there is no (financial) pressure to convert the modest tally room into a cabaret as we all know and somehow tolerate in the west. (Can-can dancing on at AAJs or Exotica, 1am, journos free.)

Voting over – seems ok to me

I base my following comments on a foray out this morning and a later one in the afternoon around poll closing time. Dili is crawling with international election monitors (ie scrutineers, observers), many wearing fishing jackets. The award for the most stylish fishing jacket goes to the EU team, followed by Japan and the UNDP jacket in last place.

Voting hours were 7am to 4pm. Everyone expected voters to go early and indeed they did. There were long queues from opening time, but by noon in most places, the queues had gone and there was no late charge at all.

One of the observers told me that this had been the pattern in most places, with hardly a vote at all in the last hour. There were no signs of malingering youths around polling places that I could see. All the queuing was orderly, quiet, peaceful and there was no sign of frustration, even after queueing in hot conditions for over half an hour. There was no sign of any disorganisation and most people walked to the polling places so even traffic (and parking) didn’t seem an issue.

I am accustomed to seeing party faithful handing out how-to-vote cards, but there was no such thing here. I think all campaigning of that sort is not permitted.

The authorities elected to go for a system where the counting is done at the polling place itself and in the public eye (ie direct eyes of party representatives and other international and national observers, with others looking from the windows). The boxes are opened and each paper assigned its preference under this gaze and the results tallied on a large sheet of paper stuck on the wall. Very simple and very transparent. But the process of aggregating the results is perhaps not as slick as most of us westerners are accustomed to.

We, in the west would be looking for a tally room but I don’t think they have one. I think the voting authority (STAE) pass the results to the independent election committee (CNE) who publish the results as they see fit. Doesn’t have the same drama that a tally room has.

Naturally, the observers have links between themselves across the country, as do the press to some extent. So one would expect that the general trend across the country to be known. It would appear at this stage that Jose Ramos-Horta will have the most votes but it is unclear if he has the 50% of votes to avoid a 2nd round vote with the next best candidate, which at this stage, is between Fretilin’s LuOlu and the Democratic Party’s Lasama.

But you do have to remember that Dili has less than 20% of the total eligible voters so all sorts of things could be happening out there in the districts.

Election Tomorrow

Yesterday was another quiet one – just as you would expect from an Easter weekend. Not that I looked, but I don’t even recall seeing Easter eggs in shops. This is a good thing.

I am not expecting any trouble until tomorrow – election day. There still may be none but somehow once the results start rolling in, I think that will lift tensions, particularly if there are some surprise results.

Voting starts at 7am and goes until 4pm. Voters select one candidate only. Voters can vote at any polling place in the country provided they have their voter registration card or passport. A finger is dipped in indelible ink to record that a voter has done the job and to prevent the “vote early, vote often” syndrome.

There has been a high level of party politics associated with this election, which at the end of the day, is for a president who actually wields very little power. I think it was a major frustration for Xanana Gusmao to find people queueing up to see him with problems and being unable to do anything about it. The presidential role here seems more analogous to “governor-general” in the Commonwealth system but the term “president” here carries a weight far less than say a US president in power terms.

I can recall the issue of a popular vote for Australia’s GG (governor-general). Given the role has no real power over political outcomes (except under exceptional circumstances), I shuddered at the thought of the major parties putting forward candidates for another political stoush. I sort of prefer it that the GG is appointed and just disappears into the background, spending life shaking hands and having lots of cups of tea … and occasionally gets drunk at the races.

Good Friday – 3 days to go

In the interests of continuity, I will try to be good and post daily until the election results are out at the end of next week.

I don’t need to do much as there are international press crawling all over the place looking for a story. The hotels are full and its not because of the holiday weekend.

Yesterday was completely uneventful for me and I have to resort to UN security reports to tell me if anything happened. No-one talked about anything out of the ordinary so I assumed nothing more than the usual occasional rock and abuse. Most of the longer-term expat residents don’t tend to talk much about the small incidents.

By the look of the candidate supporters, there would appear to be a certain proportion of hangers-on looking for a good time. Many looked curiously similar to the same hangers-on around some of the gang fights. For this reason, I am not going to be surprised to hear of the occasional altercation when rival supporters cross paths. This stuff may well be outside the candidate’s control.

Officially, the campaigning is over. I am told that Fretilin supporters are camping out down at Tasi Tolu which is about 8kms west of the centre of town. (I will guess and say in the racecourse area.) I assume other candidate’s supporters are doing the same at various points around the place. One of these groups will end up having a big party next week. Who knows if these groups will stick together right through until next Friday when a final result is expected.

As for me today, a bit of body maintenance may be required and without the peak minute traffic, a bit of sucking in the silence.

Campaigning in Dili

Nothing like a big presidential campaign to unclog writer’s block. The candidates were all back in town today. The Fretilin rally was at 10am at the raceway in Comorro, the Lasama rally at Democracy field at 2pm and the Horta rally at the Stadium at 2pm. (I understand the Lucia Lobato rally was yesterday.)

There was also a large crowd milling about in front of the World Bank outside Xavier do Amaral’s house (which is next-door to the WB building). All this added up to a bit of traffic carnage today. Getting around by car was a general pain in the neck, with roads blocked to cater for the associated fleets of supporters moving about in convoy.

I ended up traveling down streets I never usually use to try to get about. It provided further evidence that there really are very few campaign posters on display IN Dili. Last weekend, I went for a Sunday drive to Liquica and beyond. It was quite noticeable that houses in the countryside often had candidate posters on front doors, walls and gates. No-one seems to want to show their hand here in Dili. Better to shut up than to give someone an excuse to abuse you over your voting preference.

In the Liquica/Maubara area, the general feel was that Ramos Horta had the most posters followed by Lucia Lobato.

You couldn’t help but notice the racket from the rallies at Democracy field and the stadium. I stuck my nose into both, and despite the frenzied atmosphere at times, I felt fine. There were quite a few “international press” at the rallies, particularly at the stadium. President Xanana Gusmao and his family attended the Ramos Horta rally which was dominated by CNRT flags but there appeared to be Partido Millenium Democratico and Fretilin Mudanca supporters (or just tshirt wearers).

It was a bit of a battle getting home as Fretilin supporters were moving about town all afternoon in convoy. Based on the age cross-section of those in the Fretilin convoy, the age distribution was definitely skewed towards the male 15 to 25 years old bracket. Both the Lasama and Ramos Horta rallies seemed to have a much broader age distribution.

I am told there were a few rock fights during the day and altercations between Fretilin and other supporters including the use of tear gas, but although I heard sounds indicating trouble at a distance, I saw nothing.

8 days to the vote

For once, Dili is not dominating the entire attention of everything here in TL. Election campaigning commenced in earnest on 23 March, with presidential candidates moving about the countryside, and according to campaign schedules, appears to indicate a return to Dili on about 4 April, presumably for a major campaign here.

News reports show that the usual political bagging of opponents occurs here like everywhere else. There are a few claims of breaking election rules and the odd bit of roughing up of opponent’s supporters. But for the moment, this seems to be happening on the countryside campaign trail.

In most respects, Dili is very quiet. The Fatuhada area appears to be the only area where there have been regular security incidents of late. Perhaps the introduction of a permanent police station in Bairo Pite has helped keep Bairo Pite quieter. There seems to be nothing to suggest that one should be particularly concerned about moving about in general.

Campaign supporters are seen at off intervals moving about Dili on open-topped trucks, waving a few flags and doing the odd bit of chanting. It just looks like this is just a bit of a reminder to keep things going until the candidates return to Dili in a few days time.

I have seen Fretilin and Lu’Olu posters in a few places but for the moment, that’s all I have seen and some of these have already been partially removed. Based on the streets, you would hardly know an election is a week away.

According to the campaign schedules, the candidates ought to be back here on Wednesday, giving 4 days of campaigning here.

Electioneering

I’ve done fish and apart from the weather, I guess there is no getting away from the fact that there is a presidential election campaign underway. Now before your brain immediately starts comparing it to a US-style presidential election, remember that the president here appears to have very little real power and is more ceremonial than anything else. I am not sure the people here have really fully come to terms with the power differences of the roles of president, prime minister and parliament.

As to who would make the best Timorese president and the impact that party affiliation has on the operations of the position, I don’t know. I am no student of politics and most of the time, shake my head in amazement (and often disgust) at the antics of politicians – the double speak, the evasion of hard questions, the bagging of opponents and the cliched nature of election campaigns. The sudden urge to kiss babies one month before an election campaign …well mothers, better wash them afterwards.

Keep in mind that my observations are from an English speaking visitor’s perspective and I am not part of the target audience for any electioneering so I don’t expect to know much at all about what is happening behind the scenes and at street level.

Compared to OZ elections (for example), there appear to be similarities and there are certainly differences. Basically, apart from the Fretilin party, there appears to be nowhere near the same level of campaign funding (as you should expect here). We are still 11 days out and I have only seen minimal street advertising and no handing out of campaign literature. All I can say is I have read about campaign rallies but not seen one myself yet. There has been the odd scuffle at these rallies.

I have seen one of the common campaigning methods used here and that is the convoy of trucks with chanting supporters flying flags. I have seen this before with supporters of Rogerio Lobato when he went on trial in the courts, on peace rallies and just before Fretilin held their internal leadership vote last year. It should be noted that (based on my guess) these truck convoys contain 98+% males and in the age group 15 to 25 – not exactly fully representative of the voting population. Yesterday’s convoy that I saw, seemed to be only 3 trucks (with UNPol escort) with supporters chanting “Lu’Olo” (ie the Fretilin presidential candidate).

One of the local newspapers ran a mobile phone text message poll recently. Initially, the Fretilin candidate was well down in the results but after a couple of days, there was a big surge in the Fretilin numbers. Again, in this country, a mobile phone poll is probably not going to be representative either.

In web space, I have really only been able to find material from the Fretilin party. Again, I wonder just how targeted this can be in this country – for Dili residents only and only a small proportion at that. There is no doubt that Fretilin have the resources which the other parties do not seem to have.

I am expecting things to wind up over the next week and hopefully, I will have something more useful to say. I have been told that it is probably not a good idea to go to a campaign rally but I wonder if curiosity will get the better of me. I like to watch.

Note : It took me a week to write this. Drafted it once, threw it away, did it again, computer crashed, lost it. Its actually quite different from the first go. Depends on which side of bed you get out of.