Today, the last of the losing first round presidential candidates declared their endorsed candidate for the 2nd round. The Democratic Party’s Fernando “LaSama” do Araujo formally endorsed Jose Ramos-Horta.
If the supporters of the other six candidates vote exactly according to their leader’s endorsement for the second round then the second round contestants LuOlu (29%) and Ramos-Horta (22%) would expect to go to something like 31% and 69% respectively.
It is unlikely to go quite like that but even if only 80% follow their leaders endorsement, it would end up something like LuOlu (40%) and Ramos-Horta (60%).
Some people still say the first round election was fundamentally flawed and it is truly fortunate that the results were so distinctly separated in vote numbers that no-one is convinced an accurate count would change the final result. But it has put more pressure on the 2nd round result to get it right.
Thankfully, it appears it was no Nigeria or as bad as Florida.